Oct 20: Two noted strategic thinkers-Stephen Cohen and Prof. Kishore Mahbubani from NUS, Singapore-will discuss the strategic challenges and opportunities ahead of India in the next 15 years.

Kishore Mahbubani is the author of the new book The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Power to the East, available early 2008, as well as Can Asians Think? and Beyond the Age of Innocence: Rebuilding Trust between America and the World.

Kishore Mahbubani started the session by stating his geopolitical views about the current situation the world is dealing with. He said that in the area of geopolitics there are no real experts. Moreover you can ague literally anything in this domain. We can argue that even in last 3000 years nothing has changed regarding the geopolitical situation of the world. At the same time we can also argue that everything has changed.

Argument: Everything has changed

In the past, we have notices that any major shift of power in world leads to tension between the world’s greatest power and the world greatest emerging power. Few years back we observed similar situation appearing between US and China. But in last 7 years, things have gone in completely contradictory directions. Things have actually moved in positive direction and the tension has significantly diminished between US and China.

Actually, the world has reached its most peaceful era in the history of mankind. In Europe, not only do we have zero probability of war but we also have zero prospects of war.

In short – “Everything has changed”

Argument: Nothing has changed

Although on the surface it appears that things have actually moved in positive direction between US and China. But underneath the surface geopolitical rivalry has begun. In we look at the intention behind India – US nuclear deal; one can argue that this deal is an impact of US geopolitical decision to create India against China. US do not want China to emerge as the Asia’s largest power. They are looking for creating India against China.

Russia’s attack on Georgia is actually the counterattack of the Orthodox world against the West’s latest crusade including invasion in Serbian homeland and invasion on Iraq.

Therefore when we are looking for solutions, we really need to be careful.

We have no clear idea about where the world is going to go. We can also say the 21^st century is actually the repetition of 19^th century. Asia is currently observing the similar geopolitical situation, as we had observed in Europe in the 19^th Century. Therefore, we might see a war happening in Asia very soon. Looking at the current situation, India – Pakistan war seems most probable.

In fact what happened in India on 26^th November, 2008 is actually a repetition of US 911. The large strategic objective of organizations that were behind these attacks was to make US act against Islamic world. In fact, they succeeded hugely in their mission. The invasion of Iraq is a strategic gift to those who wanted to create these differences.

One of the goal behind Mumbai attach was to kill people. At the same time, they also had a strategic objective. That is to create conflict between India and Pakistan. We need to question ourselves, do we really want them to succeed or perhaps we need to be careful in taking any further steps.

Another possible outcome of Asia might be that we return to 20^thcentury Europe, that is, ‘Cold war’. Tension has already stated to build up between India and Pakistan.

As per Prof. Kishore Mahbubani personal views, the probability of war is 20%, the probability of cold war is 30% while there are 50 % chances that we might see the emergence of Peaceful Era. In fact if we look around this new era has already started to emerge. Right not there is no major war happening around the world. The prospects of war have globally gone down. China and Vietnam were fighting from last 1000 years. Few years back, we have seen roughly one million soldiers confronted from both sides on war front. But now it’s all over. This is the best time in the history of China-Vietnam Relationship.

But to achieve this objective there are 3 key challenges:

1. Global Leadership: Currently everybody is taking care of their part but nobody is thinking about 6.5 Billion people as a whole. Even though there are bodies like IMF and world bank but still nobody is showing up as the Leader.

2. Anger of the population of Islamic countries: Prof Mahbubani proposed that lets us work together to find a solution to Israel – Palestine problem and we will break the back of Islamic anger.

3. Asian Counties provide global leadership to the world: The Asian countries were the major beneficiary of the policies created after the second world war by American and European union, which have contributed to the recent success of Asian countries. It’s time for Asian countries to give it back and deal with it responsibly.

Stephen Cohen, agreed to most of the observations and recommendations of Prof. Mahbubani. He mentioned that while dealing with the challenges mentioned by Prof. Mahbubani, we need to keep in mind is the fact that we are living the nuclear age.

In the direction of improving the public polices, India need to take care of following aspects:

Create think tank with global mind set
Coverage: Domestic issues, covering various prospective as well as global issues
Communication: Work we do has to be broadcasted. Use all modern means of communication
Credibility: It comes from quality control. We really need to have appreciation for quality.
Courage: People who can challenge existing conversation and thinking
International Dimension: Currently all major reputed institutions in India like IIT, IAS, IPS focus around “India”. We need “Global” focus in Indian Institutions.

Kishore Mahbubani,  Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore has just published The New Asian Hemisphere: the Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East. 

On Dec 21^th (Sunday) from 11:00 AM to 12:30 AM, two noted strategic thinkers - Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institute and Prof. Kishore Mahbubani from NUS, Singapore - will discuss the strategic challenges and opportunities ahead of India in the next 15 years.

[Kapil Nakra] During your interaction with Prof Stephen Cohen at PanIIT 2008, what are the key elements you want to touch upon? Can you give us the highlights for the audience.

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani]The key point I will emphasize is that India will have to adapt its foreign policy to deal with a completely new world. Modernization has changed everything. The world has shrunk. We are all sailing on the same boat, all 6.6 billion inhabitants of the world. But we are sailing on the same boat without a captain or crew to take care of the boat as a whole. The big question for the 21^st century is: who will provide global leadership? Can India provide it?

[Kapil Nakra] What are the key challenges ahead of India on its way to become the global superpower?

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani] India will not become the global superpower anytime soon. But it will become a global superpower soon. However, no country gains power easily. It has to overcome many challenges. Internally, even though India is likely to have coalition governments, it can still seek to create a multi-party consensus among its foreign policy establishment on the key parameters of India’s new foreign policy. This can be done. Externally, it will have to achieve stable long-term relationships with USA, China, EU, Japan and Russia, India should have the courage to take independent stands and also play a bridging role, especially between Islam and the West.

[Kapil Nakra] How can India leverage the current global economic downturn to continue its growth over the next 10-15 years?

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani] The current global economic downturn is not good news for India. India’s economic growth will slow down. However, in every crisis, there is also an opportunity. India should balance its dependence on USA and EU by looking for new markets in Asia. It should explore more Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Asian neighbours. Right now, an Indo-Pakistan FTA is unthinkable but any objective analysis will show that it will bring political and economic benefits to both parties. Can India do the unthinkable?

[Kapil Nakra] If you were to make amendments in Indian Foreign Policy, what changes will you make?

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani] Every country’s foreign policy has contradictions. Take the USA for example. It claims to promote democracy and human rights but if it has vital interests in a country (say, Saudi Arabia), its interests trump its values in foreign policy. India’s foreign policy is no different. In theory, it maintains its non-aligned foreign policy; in practice it has moved much closer to the US. The challenge for India is to minimize these contradictions and work out a new theoretical underpinning for its foreign policy. 

[Kapil Nakra] As IITians, what role do you think we can play to understand or influence public policies in the right direction?

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani] The role of IITians is critical in the formulation of India’s new foreign policy. There is no doubt that the Indo-US nuclear deal would not have gone through without the support of the powerful Indian lobby in the US. The IITians play a critical role in this lobby. However, the IITians must go beyond their present contribution of strengthening the Indo-US relationship to helping India improve its relations with other powers also. Can IITians, for example, provide the moral and political leadership to develop a new partnership with Pakistan? This involves significant risks but if IITians do not take these risks, who will do so?

[Kapil Nakra] At your session at PanIIT 2008, what do you like the attendees of your session to walk away with?

[Prof. Kishore Mahbubani] They should walk away with the realization that there are no easy answers to the currents global problems. We need new IITian creativity in the political and economic discourse to match the creativity in the technological sector. The dominant Anglo-Saxon narrative on the world is becoming tired and out of touch with new global realities. We need to create a new narrative. IITians need to play a major role in creating this new narrative.